Jean-Marc's infotainment stream

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January 06, 2009
0:50
French TV ditches prime-time ads
» ‎ BBC News | Europe | World Edition

State-run French TV stations stop showing ads in prime time as part of President Sarkozy's plans to reform public broadcasting.

0:33
The hdparm Command
» ‎ Linux Today

Computing Tech: "The hdparm utility can be used by root to set and tune the settings for IDE hard drives. You would do this to tune the drives for optimal performance. Once a kernel patch and associated support programs, the hdparm program is now included with Ubuntu."

0:22
Carefully Timed Jerks Could Power Space Elevator
» ‎ Slashdot

Hugh Pickens writes "BBC has an interesting article on the long-standing issue of how to power the 'climber' that would ascend a space elevator into space. Previous ideas have included delivering microwave or laser power to the climber beamed from the Earth's surface, but now European Space Agency ground station engineer Age-Raymond Riise has demonstrated a device that could provide a "lift into space" for cheaper space missions along a 100,000-km long tether anchored to the Earth. Riise demonstrated sending power mechanically by providing carefully timed jerks of the cable at its base with a broomstick to represent the cable held in tension, an electric sander to provide a rhythmic vibration to the bottom of the stick, and three brushes representing the climber with their bristles pointing downwards allowing the climber assembly to slide upward along the broomstick as it moved slightly downward, but grip it as it moved slightly upward. 'It would be possible to make a suspension system that completely decouples the cabin where the passengers are,' says Riise. 'For them it would be a linear movement with very little disturbance.' Riise says that he has been approached by commercial elevator companies, who are researching new ideas for elevators in superscrapers where the simplicity of the approach makes it attractive when compared to other ideas for powering lifts, such as compressed air."
Read more of this story at Slashdot.

0:12
Gaza is not Lebanon; Hamas is not Hezbollah...
» ‎ SWJ Blog

Gaza Is Not Lebanon and Israel's campaign against Hamas may succeed says Thomas Donnely and Danielle Pletka at The Weekly Standard.

The conventional wisdom about the incursion by Israeli ground units into Gaza, mirrored in Sunday's Washington Post, is that "Israeli leaders run the risk of repeating their disastrous experience in the 2006 Lebanon war, when they suffered high casualties in ground combat with Hezbollah." Apparently, reporters and pundits are even more prone to refighting the last war than generals: Gaza is not Lebanon; Hamas is not Hezbollah and, most critically, Israel now is not Israel in 2006.

Andrew Exum, at Abu Muqawama, asks why is it so quiet along the Blue Line? He lists three points on why Hezbollah has been so quiet these past two weeks and solicits AM's readership to sound off in the comments. Ex also points to what he considers as good an article on the fighting in Gaza as any he has read in an American newspaper by Charles Levinson at The Wall Street Journal.

As forces move deeper into Gaza, Israel's leaders seek to avoid the mistakes made in the ambitious 2006 invasion of Lebanon.

Tom Ricks also wants to know why Hezbollah is being so quiet on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

0:03
Five Reasons Why Authentication Still Matters -- and Still Isn't Fixed
» ‎ Linux Today

Datamation: "Authentication is yesterday's problem, and it's been fixed. That's the conventional wisdom, at least, but it's a myth. Despite a flurry of new regulations, user names and passwords still rule the enterprise. Tokens and one-time-password generators are making inroads, but it's slow, plodding progress."

January 05, 2009
23:50
Comcast Able To Slow Bandwidth Hogs Across Its Network Again
» ‎ Random-Tech's piggfeed - Tech News

[91] Comcast, which got in trouble with the FCC for its P2P-throttling approach to network management has now completed its plan that deals with bandwidth hogs by slowing all broadband traffic for heavy Internet users during times of congestion. The new system is Protocol-Agnostic which means it isn't targeting P2P protocols only, therefor ok by the FCC

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23:49
One Busy Guy and the New FP
» ‎ SWJ Blog

As mentioned earlier - Tom Ricks - the special military correspondent for The Washington Post and author of Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq - is writing a blog for Foreign Policy (Passport) called The Best Defense. From SWJ friend Tom:

This is the first day this blog has been live. As you can see from the last couple of weeks of postings, I aim to offer commentary and news on national security and related issues. I appreciate tips and feedback, especially when it is civil.

That's only part of today's news on Tom - the Center for a New American Security announced that he has joined CNAS as a Senior Fellow.

Prior to becoming a Senior Fellow, Ricks was affiliated with CNAS as a Senior Writer in Residence, at which time he completed his new book, The Gamble: General Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-08, published on February 10, 2009 by The Penguin Press. In The Gamble, Ricks documents the inside story of the Iraq war from 2006 through 2008. Using hundreds of hours of exclusive interviews with top officers in Iraq and extraordinary on-the-ground reporting, Ricks -- working in the tradition of his highly lauded Fiasco -- examines the events that took place as the military was forced to reckon with itself, the surge was launched, and a very different war began.

You can read more on the new Foreign Policy here - and along with the new "look" they have added other first-rate writers to their lineup at Passport.

Harvard's Stephen Walt, coauthor of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, will inject a dose of realism into the online political debate. Superclass author David Rothkopf will give readers an inside look at the global powerbrokers who really run the world. FP senior editor Carolyn O'Hara and a crack team of Clinton-watchers will be obsessively following all things Hillary at Madam Secretary. And a coterie of conservative foreign-policy heavyweights, including Peter Feaver, Philip Zelikow, and FP's newest editor -- and Condoleeza Rice's longtime speechwriter -- Christian Brose, will be on hand to critique the Obama presidency at Shadow Government: Notes from the loyal opposition.

Some blogging veterans are also adding their names to our digital masthead. Daniel Drezner's readers already know that he has brought his must-read blog on foreign policy, international economics (and occasionally the Red Sox) over to FP. Marc Lynch's essential Middle East politics blog Abu Aardvark has also come aboard. And investigative journalist Laura Rozen will be writing The Cable, featuring original coverage, scoops, and behind-the-scenes reporting about the making of Washington's foreign policy in the age of Obama.

We'll also feature partnerships with the Small Wars Journal and a new column, The Call, with political forecasting by Ian Bremmer and the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group.

Robert Haddick will write the SWJ-FP feature, adding that to his writings at Westhawk, The American, and elsewhere.

23:33
How to: Monitor Bandwidth with Tomato Firmware
» ‎ Linux Today

Wi-Fi Planet: "Looking to track your bandwidth to scope out malware, conform to metering policies from your ISP, better utilize limited resources--or just because you're curious? Our Wi-Fi Guru walks you through Tomato's sophisticated bandwidth monitoring tools."

23:30
Employees the Next (Continuing) Big Security Risk?
» ‎ Slashdot

surely_you_cant_be_serious writes "A nationwide survey finds that most companies consider their systems vulnerable to attack. Historically, crime rates increase during recessions — and some believe that cybercrime may well follow suit, especially given massive layoffs and the dim prospects many laid-off employees face in finding a new job. 'One thing companies can start doing is monitoring their networks on an ongoing basis so that they understand the normal pattern of data flow and usage, Brill said. In many cases, companies may not have the internal capability to do this, but outsourcing options are available. Kroll Ontrack, for instance, will be rolling out a 24/7 monitoring service for its global clients manned from a US location by professionals in early 2009.'"
Read more of this story at Slashdot.

23:04
NATO TV Channel
» ‎ Pour convaincre, la verité ne peut suffire

NATO TV channel est la "télé" de l'OTAN en ligne sur internet. Elle m'a été signalée par Frédéric que je remercie. Elle diffuse des reportages de tous genres et des points presse, notamment concernant les opérations. A Consulter.[www.natochannel.tv]

23:03
Zune Misery Mystery Solved
» ‎ Linux Today

Cyber Cynic: "Some people say I like to beat Microsoft up. Not really. I just dislike bad technology, and Microsoft makes a lot of poor-quality hardware and software. Anyone unfortunate enough to own a 30GB Zune knows exactly what I mean."

22:56
Israël/Gaza - Les combats de rue ont commencé à Gaza-ville
» ‎ RFI.fr - Actualité - Monde

Au 3e jour de l'offensive terrestre israélienne, les combats opposent maintenant soldats israéliens et combattants palestiniens dans la ville de Gaza. Les chaînes arabes de télévision affirment que 3 soldats israéliens ont été tués. L'armée israélienne se refuse à tout commentaire.

22:50
Security and your mother's Linux box
» ‎ Random-Tech's piggfeed - Linux Unix

[238] As the professor of security engineering at Cambridge University, Ross Anderson is one of the founders of security economics as an academic discipline. Perhaps more impressively, though, he wants your ISP to send you cash every time you get spam.

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22:47
A Hacker's Audacious Plan To Rule the Underground
» ‎ Slashdot

An anonymous reader writes "Wired has the inside story of Max Butler, a former white hat hacker who joined the underground following a jail stint for hacking the Pentagon. His most ambitious hack was a hostile takeover of the major underground carding boards where stolen credit card and identity data are bought and sold. The attack made his own site, CardersMarket, the largest crime forum in the world, with 6,000 users. But it also made the feds determined to catch him, since one of the sites he hacked, DarkMarket.ws, was secretly a sting operation run by the FBI."
Read more of this story at Slashdot.

22:42
Review of Designing for Sign-up Virtual Seminar
» ‎ UIE Brain Sparks

Last month, Deb Brown at Aligned Structures wrote up a great review of Joshua Porter’s recent UIE Virtual Seminar, Designing for Signup:

Yesterday I attended an outstanding seminar by Joshua Porter produced by those great folks at UIE (yep shameless Ak’ing there.):) The topic was Designing for Sign-up. What struck me the most about the presentation, as a UX geek, was that the issue was not about the mechanical process of making the sign-up easier, but around the socio-psychological issues of helping users make a commitment.

Read Deb’s entire post.

22:33
Is Microsoft "Pulling an EDGI" on Kerala?
» ‎ Linux Today

Boycott Novell: "Finally -- solid proof of targeted Microsoft dumping against GNU/Linux and Free software"

22:16
Joomla Developer’s Toolbox
» ‎ Smashing Magazine
By Steven Snell

Joomla is a popular free and open-source content management system (CMS) that can be used to power all kinds of websites. After we published developer’s toolboxes for a variety of other CMS’, many readers requested a collection of resources for Joomla users and developers, so here it is. Joomla grew out of the Mambo CMS and has since built a large and loyal group of users, much like the other popular open-source options. What this means for users and developers is that there is a wealth of information and resources available, and in this post we’ll take a look at many of the best.

Other developer’s toolboxes from Smashing Magazine:
1. Official Resources
Although the Joomla community of users provides plenty of valuable resources, there are also some official resources from Joomla that are worth noting:

Joomla Home
The official home of Joomla, where you can get information about the system and download the files.

Documentation
A wealth of information that should be bookmarked by any Joomla user or developer.

Joomla Community Magazine
A great resource for Joomla users and developers to stay up-to-date.

Team Blogs
Each working group within the Joomla community maintains its own blog to communicate with the community.

Joomla Forums
If you’re looking for support or just a place to pose general questions to the community, this is the resource.
2. Getting Started
If you’ve decided that you want to give Joomla a try, take a look at these three resources to help you get started the right way:

Getting Started with Joomla
If you’ve never used Joomla before, this is a good starting point.

Joomla 1.5 Installation Manual
If you need help getting Joomla installed, this provides you with instructions.

Absolute Beginner’s Guide to Joomla
A great resource for those who are just getting started; includes information on installing, admin options, the templating system and more.
3. Tutorials
If you’re looking to learn more about working with Joomla-powered websites, developing your own templates, working with plug-ins and more, here is a collection of categorized tutorials:
3.1 Working with Templates
Joomla Template Tutorial
Learn how to create a Joomla template in the developer network.

Edit Template
Shows you how to edit your template from the admin panel.

How to Determine Which Page You Are on from within a Joomla 1.5 Template
When developing templates, you may want to style pages differently. This tutorial will help.

Editing the CSS File
A visual guide to making basic changes to Joomla’s CSS file.

Understanding Output Overrides in Joomla 1.5
An explanation for designers and developers about the output generated by Joomla.

Paging in Joomla
For Joomla developers who need help creating pagination.

Page Titles in Joomla 1.5
A look at working with page titles and modifying them to suit your needs.

Styling Front Page a Different Way
A quick tutorial on applying different styles to the front page of a Joomla website as compared to other pages on the website.

Custom 404 Error Pages
How to set up your own custom 404 error page on Joomla.
3.2 Working with Databases:
Export Joomla Database
The basic steps for exporting your database with phpMyAdmin.

Joomla Coding Practices: Tables and Primary Keys
Some helpful information about naming tables.
3.3 Website Administration
How to Change the Administrator Template in Joomla 1.5
Learn how you can make changes to your admin interface to suit your needs.

How to Change Your Default Images Directory in Joomla 1.5
It’s possible to change your image directory in a Joomla website, and this article shows you how.

Import Your WordPress Blog into Joomla
If you’re interested in moving from WordPress to Joomla, this article shows you the steps to take.

Keeping Your Joomla Installation Safe Against Hacks and Exploits
Some quick advice for securing your website.

Securing Your Administrator Directory Using .htaccess Files
A quick tutorial on securing your Joomla website against hackers using .htaccess.

Moving Joomla Websites
Changing Web hosts or domain names can be very frustrating. This article shows you the process for a Joomla website.
3.4 Working with Feeds
Leveraging Feeds in Joomla 1.5
A helpful guide to working with feeds in Joomla.

How to Have RSS on Any Page of Joomla 1.5
A very quick tip for getting an RSS feed from any page.
3.5 Working with Modules, Plug-Ins and Components
Module Manager
A simple guide to Joomla’s module manager.

How to Create a Joomla Plug-In
Are you looking to enhance the core functionality of Joomla for yourself or others? Here is a look at the basics.

Include Any Module Within Content in Joomla 1.5
A tutorial on integrating AdSense, PayPal and AdBrite within Joomla content.

Introduction to Joomla Component Development
A basic look at the subject of component development.
3.6 Other Tutorials
The Super Secret Site Map Trick
Get a site map without installing any extensions.

Joomla Performance Tuning: Module Cache
Learn how to improve your website’s performance with this tutorial on module caching.

How to Embed a YouTube Video in an Article in Joomla 1.5
This article shows you how to use a simple plug-in to insert YouTube videos easily.

Joomla Search Engine Optimization
A five-step approach to optimizing a Joomla-powered website.
4. Joomla Templates
The Joomla community has already created thousands of templates. There are several different websites that offer premium theme membership clubs, and there are also plenty of free templates available. Here we’ll look at some of the best places to get free and premium templates.

JoomlaJunkie
JoomlaJunkie offers club memberships that give users, designers and developers access to premium templates, and it also offers several free templates.

Best of Joomla
Developers can submit free templates here to be downloaded by others. Best of Joomla also offers some additional resources aside from free templates.

Joomla24
Provides more than 1,500 free Joomla templates.

Design for Joomla
A large collection of free templates for downloading.

Funky Visions
Offers a number of free templates for downloading.

IbolDesign
IbolDesign offers some free templates for downloading.

Rocket Theme
Rocket Theme is another premium template club; it also offers four free templates.

Joomla Shack
A marketplace for free and premium templates.

Joomla Jet
A premium theme marketplace that offers three different levels of membership.

Joomla Art
Another premium template club; it also provides some tutorials and additional resources.

Blank Joomla 1.5 Template
A free starting point for your template development.

DJoomla
A collection of free user-submitted templates, among other resources.

SiteGround
This hosting company provides a number of free templates for Joomla users.

OSSkins
A home for free and premium templates for Joomla, WordPress and Drupal.
5. Extensions, Plug-Ins, Add-Ons
Like any other open-source CMS, Joomla comes with certain features and functionality out of the box, but additional features are available through extensions, plug-ins and add-ons. Like the templates, some are free and some are premium. In this section, we’ll include links to the best places to find the right extensions for your projects.

Joomla Extensions Directory
The official directory of extensions.

Joomla Add-Ons
An excellent collection of free components, modules and plug-ins, as well as some for sale.

Elsak.org
A collection of extensions for Joomla.

JoomlaWorks
JoomlaWorks sells some premium plug-ins, but it also offers a number of useful plug-ins for free downloading.

Joomla Bamboo
Joomla Bamboo offers premium extensions and templates, but it also has some free resources.

VirtueMart
VirtueMart is a free open-source e-commerce solution for Joomla and Mambo websites.

DJoomla
Directory of user-submitted Joomla modules.

iJoomla
A third-party extension directory is available at iJoomla.

SiteGround
A collection of Joomla add-ons, some free and some premium.

UltiJoomla
A blog that includes a number of free extensions.
6. Inspiration
If you would like to see what other designers and developers have been able to accomplish with Joomla, you’re in luck. There are several websites dedicated to Joomla inspiration, and a few others that include Joomla along with inspiration from other CMS’.

Joomla Based
A large showcase of Joomla-powered websites.

Joomla Showcase
A Web design gallery specifically for Joomla-powered websites.

Best of Joomla
An inspirational gallery that also provides free templates.

Joomla Case
Another design gallery just for Joomla.

CMS Showcase
There are currently almost 40 Joomla-powered websites featured on CMS Showcase.

Joomla Showcase
The Joomla forums include an area for showing off custom Joomla templates and getting inspiration from the work of others.

Joomla Zone
Joomla Zone includes a Joomla Powered section, where website owners and designers can submit their Joomla-powered websites to be displayed
7. Compared to Other CMS’
If you haven’t used Joomla before, you’re probably wondering how it stacks up against other CMS options. The following resources, featuring the opinions of others on Joomla and other open-source CMS’, should help. Keep in mind that each has its own strengths and weaknesses, and no CMS is right for every project.

Joomla vs. WordPress
A discussion thread on the SitePoint forums.

Which CMS? Joomla vs. Drupal vs. WordPress
This video discusses each of these three open-source options.

WordPress vs. Joomla: A Handy Guide
This post on YOUmoz looks at the topics of usability, versatility and SEO.

Why Can’t We Be Friends? Joomla vs. Drupal
A balanced article that looks at the pros and cons of each.

Joomla and Drupal - Which One Is Right for You?
This article is about two years old, but it may still be helpful if you’re trying to compare.
8. Developer Resources
These resources don’t fit very well in the other categories in this post, but they’re all worth pointing out, and they all focus on meeting various needs of Joomla developers.

JoomlaCode
JoomlaCode.org is a resource for developers to build and manage open-source software projects centered on Joomla.

Joomlancers
Freelance job marketplace for Joomla developers.

Joomla Developer Resources
A resource for developers who are developing, or want to develop, custom components and add-ons for Joomla.

About the Author
Steven Snell is a Web designer and blogger. He actively maintains his own blog at Vandelay Design, where he frequently publishes articles about design, collections of resources and inspirational galleries. You can also follow him on Twitter. (al)

22:03
How to Install Adobe Flash in Debian Etch/Lenny/Sid
» ‎ Linux Today

Debian Admin: "Flash Player is a cross-platform browser plug-in that delivers breakthrough Web experiences to over 98% of Internet users. If you run Etch you will want to use backport.org"

21:59
Distributed "Nuclear Batteries" the New Infrastructure Answer?
» ‎ Slashdot

thepacketmaster writes "The Star reports about a new power generation model using smaller distributed power generators located closer to the consumer. This saves money on power generation lines and creates an infrastructure that can be more easily expanded with smaller incremental steps, compared to bigger centralized power generation projects. The generators in line for this are green sources, but Hyperion Power Generation, NuScale, Adams Atomic Engines (and some other companies) are offering small nuclear reactors to plug into this type of infrastructure. The generator from Hyperion is about the size of a garden shed, and uses older technology that is not capable of creating nuclear warheads, and supposedly self-regulating so it won't go critical. They envision burying reactors near the consumers for 5-10 years, digging them back up and recycling them. Since they are so low maintenance and self-contained, they are calling them nuclear batteries."
Read more of this story at Slashdot.

21:56
FBI's New Cryptanalysis Contest
» ‎ Schneier on Security

From their website....

21:44
Pays-Bas - Premier maire d'origine étrangère à Rotterdam
» ‎ RFI.fr - Actualité - Monde

L'ancien secrétaire d'Etat néerlandais aux Affaires sociales, Ahmed Aboutaleb, né au Maroc, a été installé lundi dans ses fonctions de maire de Rotterdam (ouest), devenant ainsi le premier maire d'origine étrangère des Pays-Bas.

21:33
6 Best Personal Finance Apps for Linux
» ‎ Linux Today

Tech Republic: "In the past, Linux was not overly blessed with decent budgeting software, and installing GnuCash was regarded by many as the epitome of a descent into dependency hell. Thankfully, things have since changed...."

21:31
Scientists Unlock Secrets Of Australia's Giant 30kg Koalas
» ‎ Random-Tech's piggfeed - General Sciences

[327] Hundreds of thousands of years ago, giant versions of Australia's unique wildlife stalked the continent. There were kangaroos up to 3m tall and enormous wallabies, wombats and echidnas. There were also koalas: larger and weightier than the creatures sometimes seen today in eucalyptus trees.

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21:07
ESA Embraces Open Source With New SAR Toolbox
» ‎ Slashdot

phyr writes "The European Space Agency (ESA) has released its Next ESA SAR Toolbox (NEST) freely as GPL for Linux and Windows. It provides an integrated viewer for reading, calibrating, post-processing and analysis of ESA (ERS 1&2, ENVISAT) and 3rd party (Radarsat2, TerraSarX, Alos Palsar, JERS) SAR level 1 data and higher. ESA has chosen to distribute the software as fully open source to allow the remote sensing community to easily develop new readers/writers and post-processors for SAR data with their NEST Java API. The software provides both a command line interface and GUI for all features including data conversion, graph processing, coregistration, multilooking, filtering, and band arithmetic."
Read more of this story at Slashdot.

21:03
L'Allemagne envisage un plan de relance de 50 milliards d'euros
» ‎ Le Monde.fr : International

Des désaccords demeurent cependant, notamment sur l'opportunité d'accorder des réductions d'impôt dans le cadre de ce nouveau plan, le deuxième en deux mois.

21:03
L'Allemagne envisage un plan de relance de 50 milliards d'euros
» ‎ Le Monde.fr : Economie

Des désaccords demeurent cependant, notamment sur l'opportunité d'accorder des réductions d'impôt dans le cadre de ce nouveau plan, le deuxième en deux mois.

21:03
A Gaza, les combats s'intensifient et les initiatives diplomatiques se multiplient
» ‎ Le Monde.fr : International

Alors que des affrontements ont été signalés au centre-ville de Gaza, les négociations pour aboutir à un cessez-le-feu ont échoué face au refus israélien.

21:03
Intrusion Detection Systems: Sourcefire
» ‎ Linux Today

ISP-Planet: "Marty Roesch developed the open source intrusion detection system Snort back in 1998. Three years later, Roesch launched a company, Sourcefire, Inc., to offer a commercial version. "If you think of a car, the engine itself is Snort; the whole car is Sourcefire..."
20:33
Keryx Tutorial: Bringing Updates Home
» ‎ Linux Today

Crashsystems: "...software updates typically demand an Internet connection, which can make updating difficult if not impossible. There is now a solution though, a new program called Keryx."

20:16
Sarkozy à Ramallah : "Les violences doivent cesser"
» ‎ Le Monde.fr : International

"Le monde ne comprendrait pas qu'Israël laisse la situation humanitaire à Gaza devenir encore plus dramatique", a-t-il souligné.

20:13
Ubuntu Kung Fu
» ‎ Slashdot

Lorin Ricker writes "Back in the dark ages of windows-based GUIs, corresponding to my own wandering VMS evangelical days, I became enamored of a series of books jauntily entitled Xxx Annoyances (from O'Reilly & Assocs.), where "Xxx" could be anything from "Windows 95", "Word", "Excel" or nearly piece of software which Microsoft produced. These were, if not the first, certainly among the most successful of the "tips & tricks" books that have become popular and useful to scads of hobbyists, ordinary users, hackers and, yes, even professionals in various IT pursuits. I was attracted, even a bit addicted, to these if only because they offered to try to make some useful sense out of the bewildering design choices, deficiencies and bugs that I'd find rampant in Windows and its application repertory. Then I found Keir Thomas, who has been writing about Linux for more than a decade. His new "tips" book entitled, Ubuntu Kung Fu — Tips & Tools for Exploring Using, and Tuning Linux, and published by Pragmatic Bookshelf, is wonderful. Having only recently wandered into the light of Linux, open source software, and Ubuntu in particular, this book comes as a welcome infusion to my addiction." Read below for the rest of Lorin's review.
Read more of this story at Slashdot.

20:03
Six Ways to Speed Up Yum on Fedora
» ‎ Linux Today

Free Software Magazine: "I've been using Fedora (Core and all) on and off for a few years now and its parsimonious attitudes to codecs notwithstanding, the thing that always reduces me to a whimpering, pleading wreck is watching Yum installing a piece of software. I can forgive its tendency to handhold and even to confabulate, but Yum moves with all the speed of a treacle flow at the North Pole."

19:56
Russie/Ukraine - Gaz russe : coulera, coulera pas ?
» ‎ RFI.fr - Actualité - Monde

Une nouvelle fois, l’Europe pourrait pâtir du conflit du gaz. En toile de fond, les problèmes internes dans les 2 pays, les pressions politiques de Moscou sur Kiev, les intérêts des clans oligarchiques et les relations bilatérales très compliquées.

19:46
Strikes greet Sarkozy's TV reform
» ‎ BBC News | Europe | World Edition

Journalists at French state-owned TV strike as President Sarkozy's broadcasting reforms come into force.

19:41
Top 10 Things Launched Into Space Last Year
» ‎ Random-Tech's piggfeed - Space

[434] Space is getting crowded. The last 12 months have seen everything from a high profile space tourist, a powerful new space telescope, and everyone's favorite cuddly-looking microbes launched into space. Here are this year's tops.

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19:37
Royaume-Uni - Le porcelainier Waterford Wegdwood va fermer
» ‎ RFI.fr - Actualité - Monde

La crise fait une nouvelle victime dans le secteur du commerce : alors que plusieurs chaînes prestigieuses de magasins britanniques vont fermer, c'est aussi le célèbre fabricant de porcelaine anglo-irlandais qui pourrait mettre la clé sous la porte.

19:36
DR Congo rebels 'oust Gen Nkunda'
» ‎ BBC News | Africa | World Edition

Officers in eastern DR Congo's main rebel group say they have ousted leader Gen Laurent Nkunda - a claim he denies.

19:33
The Rise of Linux and the Death of Microsoft
» ‎ Linux Today

AnarchismToday: "All in all, 2008 was a pretty good year for Linux, and I'm hopeful 2009 will be even better. Some of the notable changes that come to mind: "

19:32
Risk Management
» ‎ framboise mécanique

Envoyé par guillaume e via Google Reader : Risk Management via Economist's View de Mark Thoma le 04/01/09

I probably should have done more to highlight the article on risk management by Joe Nocera that appeared in the NY Times Magazine this weekend. Fortunately, James Kwak and others have it covered:

Risk Management for Beginners, by James Kwak: Joe Nocera has an article ... about Value at Risk (VaR), a risk management technique used by financial institutions to measure the risk of individual trading desks or aggregate portfolios. ...

VaR is a way of measuring the likelihood that a portfolio will suffer a large loss in some period of time, or the maximum amount that you are likely to lose with some probability (say, 99%). It does this by: (1) looking at historical data about asset price changes and correlations; (2) using that data to estimate the probability distributions of those asset prices and correlations; and (3) using those estimated distributions to calculate the maximum amount you will lose 99% of the time. At a high level, Nocera's conclusion is that VaR is a useful tool even though it doesn't tell you what happens the other 1% of the time.

naked capitalism already has one withering critique of the article out. There, Yves Smith focuses on the assumption, mentioned but not explored by Nocera, that the ... changes in asset prices ... are normally distributed. To summarize, for decades people have known that financial events are not normally distributed.... Yet ... VaR modelers continue to assume normal distributions..., which leads to results that are simply incorrect. It's a good article, and you'll probably learn something.

While Smith focuses on the problem of using the wrong mathematical tools, and Nocera mentions the problem of not using enough historical data - "...VaR didn't see the risk because it generally relied on a two-year data history" - I want to focus on another weakness of VaR: the fact that the real world changes.

Even leaving aside the question of which distribution (normal or otherwise) to use, VaR assumes the likelihood of future events is dictated by some distribution, and that that distribution can be estimated using past data. A simple example is a weighted coin that you find on the street. You flip it 1,000 times and it comes up heads 600 times, tails 400 times. You infer that it has a 60% likelihood of coming up heads; from that, you can calculate the probability distribution for how many heads will come up if you flip it 10 more times, and if you want to bet on those coin flips you can calculate your VaR. Your 60% is just an estimate - you don't know that the true probability is 60% - but you can safely assume that the physical properties of the coin are not going to change, and you can use statistics to estimate how accurate your estimate is. ...

By contrast, imagine you have two basketball teams, the Bulls and the Knicks, who have played 1,000 games, and the Knicks have won 600. You follow the same methodology, bet a lot of money that the Knicks will win at least 5 of the next 10 games - and then the Bulls draft Michael Jordan. See the problem?

Now, are asset prices more like coin flips or like basketball times? On an empirical level, they may be more like coin flips; their probability distributions aren't likely to change as dramatically as when the Bulls draft Jordan.... But on a fundamental level, they are more like basketball teams. The outcome of a coin flip is dictated by physical processes, governed by the laws of mechanics, that we know are going to operate the same way time after time. Asset prices, by contrast, are the product of individual decisions by thousands, millions, or even billions of people... We have little idea what underlying mechanisms produce those prices, and all the simplifying assumptions we make (like rational profit-maximizing agents) are pure fiction.

Whatever the underlying function for price changes is,... importantly, no one tells us when the function changes. Going back to asset prices: To estimate the probability distribution of price changes, you need a sample that reflects your population of interest as closely as possible. Unfortunately, your sample can only be drawn from the past, and your population of interest is the future. So you really face two different risks. You face the risk that, in the current state of the world (assuming you can estimate that perfectly), an unlikely event will occur. You also face the risk that the state of the world will change. VaR, at best (assuming solutions to Smith's criticisms), can quantify the first risk, not the second. ...

There was one part of Nocera's article that I liked a lot:
At the height of the bubble, there was so much money to be made that any firm that pulled back because it was nervous about risk would forsake huge s

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